2026 Dubai Real Estate: Crash, Correction, or Opportunity? Find Out Now!

The total sales transaction reached up to 51 billion dirhams. The crash happened around 2008. And I've heard your horror stories, but how are the fundamentals different this time around? Well, GG, there's no comparison. UBS Bubble Index report just came out, 2025. Not saying that Dubai is at a, at a bubble risk, but that it's at a higher bubble risk. There has to be a market correction. You can never predict Dubai's real estate market. Dubai real estate crash. Let's start with the hard facts. In H1 2025, Dubai recorded 125,538 real estate transactions, up from 99,947 in H1 2024, a rise of 26%, according to the Dubai Land Department. Total transaction value in H1 2025 reached 431 billion dirhams, up 25% year on year. Off-plan sales remain a pillar. In Q2 2025, 31,699 units were traded in that segment. Fitch and other institutions warn of a 10 to 15% downside correction through late 2025 and into 2026. At the same time, ultra high net worth migration is surging. The UAE is projected to attract 9,800 millionaires in 2025 alone. Dubai's Economic Agenda D33 and the Master Plan 2040 set the road map for decades of growth and sustainability. These are your baseline facts. Now let's unpack what they mean and where the risk is. Welcome to season 6 of The Dubai Connect podcast, a top ranked Dubai real estate show. Welcome to The Dubai Connect podcast. Today I'm going to go in depth with my colleague Ahmed Fak, who was here in 2008 and can give us firsthand experience of how things are different this time around from then. So we're going to break this apart segment by segment. In the first segment we're going to discuss volume and velocity, cuz volume is telling. In Q2 2025 alone, Dubai saw 144.7 billion dirhams in transactions across tens of thousands of deals. H1 2025 recorded over 1.3 million real estate procedures, sales, leases, mortgages, and more. This kind of scale means the market is not shallow. Many pockets are active. So, I actually want to bring Ahmed on this segment specifically, cuz Ahmed, not are you a valuable partner here on the ground for me, boots on the ground 24/7, but you were here when it all started, right? That's correct, GG. Back in 2002 when I first moved from San Diego. But wait a minute, you just mentioned some stats as far as the recent numbers. Well, let me give you more accurate recent numbers from last month of August in order to prove to you there's no slowing down. The total sales transaction reached up to 51 billion dirhams for the month of August, with 18,000 transactions. Does that look like the market is slowing down? Absolutely not. So, let me ask you, not only is the market not slowing down with hard numbers, what about the type of people, like we were just talking about, the ultra ultra high net worth individuals that are moving here since you were here. So, you were, you started selling real estate in what, 2003. Okay. So, and then the crash happened around 2008, 2009. And we're going to, this whole segment is going to dive into data, dive into numbers. But what I really wanted is your position since you were here in 2008. You were here during the crash. You experienced it as a broker in Dubai. I lived and worked through it, indeed. And I've heard your horror stories. But how are the fundamentals different this time around, and being super realistic, and being transparent with the numbers and what's happening. And so having your perspective as someone, because I see a lot of brokers on podcasts, like me, I've been here 3 years. I wasn't here to understand what was happening. I know since I've been here what's been going on, and I've had the Dubai Land Department on my podcast, and I've had top experts in real estate, like for example Mortgage Finder on here, and they have sort of a prophecy, right, because they see what's happening with regards to who's taking out mortgages. And so we have sources to tap into, but I want to know from your experience, how is the demographic even different of who was purchasing that time around versus now? Well, GG, there's no comparison. There's no way we could compare today's market with the type of clientele that's entering the market today, comparing it to the type of buyers were entering the market back in 2003 all the way to 2008. I try to avoid all the noise that's going on in the current market, all the talk about the crash and the bubble, because I've seen the past, and usually what works, or I should say what has worked best for me, is to try to connect the dots from the past. Always, we should always look at the history. If it has worked for the past, it will definitely work in the future. With that said, you need to bear in mind that in 2002, when the real estate market had just barely started in Dubai, we're still a baby market. We're only a 25 to 26 year old market. So we, we still have a long run to go. So going back to 2003, people were more on the speculative side. Key word. Exactly. Key word. Yes. And the majority were unexperienced investors who were jumping on the market to make a quick buck. Why? Because you were able to make a quick buck by flipping your property within a week or so. I would say in a week you could literally gain 10 to 15% on a property that did not exist. So when people started abroad, when people abroad started looking into that, they all wanted to jump on that bandwagon. So with that said, at the same time, remember there was no market regulations. There was no government entity overseeing what was taking place or how the investors were actually day trading with the real estate market, compared to today. Today you are seeing a set of much more educated people, much more experienced people who are entering the market, not just based on day trading or flipping property. You have people nowadays, you have people actually who are looking into long term. Why? Because they're starting to look at Dubai as their second home. Everything you see around you, around the globe, what's taking place, every country's misfortune has been a fortune for Dubai, unfortunately. Unfortunately for them, but fortunately for Dubai. Exactly. Correct. So I cannot compare the type and the set of investors who are entering in today's market compared to 2008. It's, it's a whole different game. And that matters. That matters. So when someone wants to evaluate what's happening right now, and for example, UBS Bubble Index report just came out, 2025, not saying that Dubai is at a, at a bubble risk, but that it's at a higher bubble risk. And what they really attributed that to is the significant and rapid increase in price per square foot. I believe it was the highest out of all the cities that they had studied. It's still not considered at the highest risk, such as Zurich, Tokyo, and Miami, but they're saying to watch out. And by the way, the UBS Bubble Index report does not say when this is going to happen. It doesn't predict the timing. It's just saying that there may be some factors to consider. Sure, consider it. We have been saying for a while that it is healthy for a market's pricing to stabilize a bit. It cannot possibly have continued to increase at the price per square foot. But the key thing here that I really wanted to discuss is what you said, the difference, then many differences, and we're going to get into this, into the fundamentals, but that the buyer then, it was speculative. We're talking about real buyers now. I would say maybe 100%, maybe 95% of my buyers globally are looking for the Golden Visa, they're looking for exit strategy. Okay, they are looking to set up businesses here, and we see all these American companies, Oracle, etc., that are coming and setting up headquarters here. And so, and then we see families that are moving here. We see the effect of the H-1B visa situation that was just announced, that it's going to be $100,000 expensive over the lifetime of someone coming, and the Indian nationals, right, coming to, that's really going to affect them into the United States. And what do we see? An uptick of people calling us. Again, like you said, what's happening in the UK with their taxes and crime, and people are just not very happy, and now they become the top one, two buyers here in Dubai. People are moving here. Correct. So the type, sorry. Cuz, cuz GG, bear in mind, it was not easy to set up businesses back in 2008. Number two, you actually needed a sponsor back then in order to set up any business, which is not the case today. So Dubai's government has, it has made it more accessible, more convenient for anyone to come and set up a business in Dubai. So that's one of the main reasons why a lot of your millionaires, a lot of your billionaires from all over the world are packing up and setting up their hub, business hubs right here in Dubai. They're setting up their business hubs here in Dubai, which means the need for housing for these high executives, for their employees. I mean, we're seeing, for example, let's just give an example, Expo City Downtown, where Nestle came in and purchased all this property for their employees. And we have the Al Maktoum airport that is going to be bringing in all of its employees, right? We have the Dubai International Financial Center that's bringing in the finance. We have the AI campus. So, all this to say that the demographic and the type of buyers are very different then than they are now. Correct. And as we know, there's a scarcity of the type of property. And that is the reason why we talk about the ones that withstand fluctuations. Waterfront, branded residences, up and coming areas that are part of the Master 2040 plan and that are nearby metro stations or connectivity, where you can get in at lower price per square foot because it's pre construction, and really hedge against the fluctuations. Correct. Well, GG, remember one thing, Dubai has always learned from other countries' mistakes. Okay? And at the same time, it has also learned from its mistakes that it had done or made back in 2008. Fitch is always focusing more on the supply. Mhm. But it never focuses or emphasizes enough on the demand. Okay. The demand continues, and we already know why the demand is there, because you and I, with every investor of ours that we have spoken to, may they be an end user or simply as an investor, everyone's looking into long term, and a plan B, just in case if they have to leave their country and find a second home, which has always been Dubai for them. That was not the case back then. Okay, that's number one. Number two, one of the biggest mistakes I realized back in 2008, which the developers made, was consistently launching projects. Because there was nothing. There was no government entity in order to put a stop to it, or even to regulate such laws, as far as who could launch what and when. So in today's time, if there is a problem with the supply versus demand, I think at the end of the day the government entity should come out and regulate as far as who should be launching what and when, in order to control that supply. Okay. And they do do that, because actually, Ahmed, and I'm going to tag this video, on this podcast I did with the Dubai Land Department senior adviser Dr. from Mahmud Albury, where he says that the government works hand in hand with the developers to make sure that there's this healthy. I guess a healthy imbalance, and that there's enough demand to warrant investor success but not so much that it's too expensive for the people to live here, cuz at the end of the day the leadership at the top wants this to be the best city in the world for its residents. Correct. We've seen a major bull run in this last four years, and I personally do feel the prices have risen a bit too quick, especially with certain projects, with certain developers. And in certain areas. And in certain areas. I would like to see, some call it a control. I would like the Land Department to basically control as far as how much inventory is being pumped into the market. Why? Because at the same time, I would like to see the resale market to pick up. Right now, we've seen the off-plan market booming. Faster than we ever imagined. I believe last year, 2024, it was almost going head to head as far as off-plan versus resale market. But this year we're starting to see that the numbers are going higher towards off-plan. So more and more investors are choosing to buy off-plan over resale market, and I would actually like to see the other way around, because at the end of the day we need to give the investors also the benefit of basically gaining capital appreciation on their investments, rather than people focusing, or I should say the newcomers focusing strictly towards off-plan projects. Agreed. And I'm going to push on a couple of things that you mentioned. First of all, you were talking about how Fitch focuses on supply. Yes. I don't believe what Fitch covered in their report is that, I believe only 60 to 65% of what's supposed to be handed over actually gets handed over, because of the DLD communicating with developers to make sure not everything is handed over, whether it's unended delays or intentional delays. Actually, I've covered this on another podcast with Michael Corbawi, an attorney who said, you want, sometimes there to be delays. It benefits the market as a whole not to have too much supply. I would say intentional delays. And I don't know if Fitch, I don't remember if Fitch actually said, they were just saying what was off-plan and intended to be handed over. I don't believe that it took into consideration what percentage is actually handed over. Second thing you mentioned is that Fitch doesn't talk about the demand. It talks about the supply, but we saw that Dubai just hit 4 million residents, growing at a rate of over 200,000 residents per year. There is not enough supply to meet the demand. But you and I have mentioned, yes, there are pockets of areas we stopped selling 3 years ago. We thought it was a great buy at that time, at that price point, and that now we know, or we believe based on your vast years of experience and what I've been doing being immersed here, is that those areas, stay away from them if it's an investment, cuz we do think that it is going to be oversupplied. What's not going to be oversupplied is a certain segment catering to the ultra high net worth individuals, but not just that, to families that are growing, the need of villas. We know there are not enough villas to accommodate the families that are moving here. Correct. And waterfront properties, what, 6, 7% of waterfront is available for a freehold, and that's, it's globally, you know, stands the test of time, and even more so in Dubai, and Knight Frank discusses this in its report. So thank you for answering that the demographic and the type of buyer is different than now. So let's get into more numbers as well. Okay. So as we just mentioned, institutions like Fitch forecast 10 to 15% downside through late 2025, 2026, in some segments, but some parts of the market remain resilient. Prime waterfront, branded stock, villas with strong scarcity still carry pricing power. The message, a correction is possible, but a crash, that's conditional. So Ahmed, we touched upon this a little bit in the segment we just discussed, but you and I have been guiding our investors, our messaging has been the same for at least a year and a half now, guys. Maybe 3 years ago, you buy a property in Dubai, just get in. Now, yes, we know globally, location, location, location. But I don't know if you agree with me, I would say equivalently, developer, developer, developer. Correct. Same, go hand in hand, because even if you're in the best location, two developers next to each other, if we want to hedge against any potential fluctuations in the market, how is one going to be differentiated from the other? The developer brand name in Dubai, more than probably any other city that I know in the world. Would you agree with that? Correct. Of course, 110%. I mean, especially in the last 3 years, majority of our investors who we've been speaking to, what's that one developer we always start with, especially with the Americans, when they come and say, GG, I want the safest investment there is. So when an investor is saying the safest investment, that means they don't have the appetite to take risk. Correct. Zero risk tolerance. So what's the best thing to offer them is, obviously, Emaar. Because Emaar has proven during history that whatever you invest in Emaar is a winner at the end of the day. The problem with Emaar, as you know, especially for American investors, but of course more global investors are more aware about that, it's not easy to get a unit. Of course, we're very connected with the sales director there, but that 80/20 payment plan can become inhibitive for some. But then there are other options that are also very safe bets. It's when the government is involved. Exactly. Such as city. There you go. With the semi-government developers and a handful of boutique developers that we are very comfortable with, who yet once again have proven a good history. Correct. So yes, there's no problem in always advising investors, because at the end of the day it's just not the payment plan, it's also their budget. What actually suits, works for them, what actually works for them. So, okay. So, going back into it, but going into scarcity, that's what's really important to talk about right now, is that the type of unit, the type of demographic that we see right now, is going to be an important part of hedging against corrections. GG, I'm going to make it as simple as possible for your viewers. In the last 26 years, I've experienced one thing. You can never predict Dubai's real estate market. Dubai does what Dubai does best, is surprise its investors. They never ever disappoint their investors by always sticking out their hidden ace card, which I always say, when it's most needed. Number one. Number two, you don't have to be a genius to understand the Dubai real estate demographic. Okay, it's very well and simple and self explanatory. Okay, investors in Dubai who've been investing in the Dubai's real estate market since 2008 know exactly what will work in 2025 or not. Okay. Again, by connecting the dots, people need to bear in mind, I keep on hearing people, what if there is a market crash. Okay. Let's clarify one thing. We will not see a crash. We will not witness a bubble. We will not witness a crash. What we will witness, which is eminent, is a price correction. Fitch came out and said 15%. You know what? I'm fine with 15%. Compared to what I saw investors lose in 2008, anywhere from 50 to 60% losing value of your portfolio, I am happy with 15%. You know why? Because that's actually healthy for our market. There's a whole set of investors who are sitting on the sideline waiting for that correction in order to enter the market, which basically will boost the market and the prices when that set of investors come in. Okay, that's one. Number two, so what? Even if the prices go down 15% and above, you sit. Your property is going to be rented. It is generating an income. What are you going to do? I've seen investors lose a fortune in 2008 by dumping their portfolio at 50% loss. But you know what? 3 years later, exactly 3 years later, those properties got back to the same prices they were, they gained that 50% loss in a span of 3 years. How do you think those investors were feeling? So, panic is never the right reaction. If you're going to treat the real estate market and be emotional about it, this is not a stock market. You cannot be emotional. When a stock market, when a certain share falls down, you're sitting on dead money because you're not generating anything from it. But when you own a property, it's never sitting empty, not generating any money. You are renting it and you are generating money on a year on year basis. So the worst thing an investor could do is panic and sell. If you sell, tell me something, GG. Where are they going to take their money? Back to their country where they're going to get taxed on it to begin with, makes no sense. So, God forbid, just for the sake of this argument, if the market faces that sort of correction, 15% or even more, best thing is for you to sit back, enjoy the ride. It's going to be a very short ride, and enjoy the capital appreciation, the rental ROI that you're gaining from that property. We will not see these properties be ready for another 3 to 4 years. So whatever wants to happen right now, it better happen right now, cuz we could sit and wait that out. You don't have your property anyways. So what's the purpose of panicking and talking about, would the market crash or not? Makes no sense, does it? So I hear you on everything you said so passionately, and clearly you are much more experienced in this market than I am. And if you even look historically, there are still going to be certain areas that will bypass that potential. That's why it's so important who you're buying it with, and what are you buying. Not everything in Dubai is glitter and glass. Exactly. And that's okay. Yes. And that's a separate topic. We're going to get into that segment later. So supply may be heavy, but absorption must keep up. Dubai's pipeline towards 2028 includes hundreds of thousands of units in various stages. In 2025 alone, tens of thousands of new units will deliver in corridors like JVC, Business Bin Rashid, Al Jan. Yet an H1 residential sales value rose 36%. And transactions, 22.9%. Here's the nuance. Certain micro markets will overcrowd, others will stay undersupplied. So, Ahmed, as we were just discussing, and I believe we've done a very fine job of this since you and I have been working together the past three years, is when someone comes to us, we tell them, look, go to The Dubai Connect podcast. There's a playlist on here that goes through why Dubai, the regulations, how to secure financing, the legal regulations in place, how to do property management from anywhere. So, by the time they come to us, they're ready. And then we help direct them with the area. And we know in real estate, scarcity equals value. So I can proudly say, look, we don't have a crystal ball. We don't know what's going to happen. If we did, you and I would be billionaires, right? Right. But we use your vast expertise and experience, my experience that I've had here, let's say, my degree in economics, my education, my connections with top experts that I have on this podcast, tapping into what's going on in all different areas and sectors, not just real estate, because it all affects real estate, right? Understanding the Sheikh's vision, what is the Master 2040 plan, what is the D33 agenda, what is actually creating the need for the real estate. And so you know we have always understood the areas that are up and coming, and it's always in line with the Master 2040 plan. Correct. Right. Yes. So to your point, I agree, and I believe there has to be a market correction. I cannot, I've said this many times, it cannot continue to go at the rate that it is. But I still do believe, and correct me if I'm wrong, that we're doing a really solid job of strategically guiding our investors based on their budget, based on their time frame, based on their goals, into areas that are scarce, and with that, scarcity equals value. Would you agree? Of course, GG. I mean, at the end of the day, I never believe in projects that are extremely overhyped. Unfortunately, you and I have been witnessing that in the last 3 years, brokers in today's market, they are selling anything and everything as long as it's generating an income, not to the investor, but to the broker itself. Exactly. So, can I interrupt you? Emaar pays us less commission than probably any other. And yet that's the one we always say is number one, just to give someone the insight of how we work. Exactly. Sorry, I had to say that. Yes. It's a fact. This is not something you could hide, because, let's put it out there. We've lost a lot of investors and clientele because we did not tell them what they wanted to hear. What other brokers have promised them, because we choose not to take that route, because at the end of the day, we're looking at working long term with our investors. We're not looking at short term, make a quick sale and a buck and move forward. So with that said, unfortunately there's a lot of misconception in the market as far as what's the best out there, and sometimes I feel you and I are going the other direction while everybody else are. And you'll call me and be like, should we just tell them yes, fine, it's good. I mean, they're keep on telling us this is what they read online. This is what they heard. Because GG, unfortunately, a lot of brokers now, even the ones who were morally correct, are actually changing sides, because they're like, eventually somebody's going to sell them that. Why not me? I know, but I can't. Exactly. And we haven't. And we haven't, we choose not to. And to your point, Ahmed, because for us, our investors are going to depend on us in 3 years to help them time the resell, to help them rent it out, and what are we going to do, bury our heads in the sand when they come back and they say, but you sold me this. And we have the situation where people that have bought with developers that you and I would never have sold, come to us and say, will you resell it? And we say, go back to your broker that sold it to you. Why are you asking us? Correct. We wouldn't have sold you that to begin with. Exactly. Right. Yes. So obviously we have to be very careful, because there are legalities in place with what we say and don't say, but, and I will never, I come from a PR background, so I understand not putting down anybody or any developer. And you cannot get scammed, because the DLD has the real estate regulatory agency in place to oversee all real estate transactions. You can't get scammed. Correct. However, that doesn't mean you're making a smart investment. Exactly. And so when you're coming to us, we are going to guide you to what is the greatest value as far as we know. Exactly. Right. Based on scarcity, and for example, I know with you there's some areas and you'll say to me, too many units in that project. Exactly. Too many. I'll give you a quick example. Once upon a time, JVC was one of my favorite places. Anyone who was a first time investor with that minimal budget, I would say definitely, definitely JVC. But is that the case today? No, it's not the case. But how many brokers you know out there who are constantly promoting, and how many developers, upcoming new boutique developers that are launching projects over there? Does it make sense to buy a one bedroom at 1.4, 1.5 million dirhams? Or how about buying a studio at this time right now? Exactly. Just to get in the market and have a project in the desert, and then what are you going to do with it? Exactly. So it makes no sense to push or take your investors in an area like JVC, which I believe is extremely saturated. It's, I believe it's been just used and abused now. And there's so many better areas, so many much more opportunities in upcoming areas where, if you want to save, you have that small budget entry point. There's so many better options out there. You're right. Even with a smaller budget, there are other areas that are better, and JVC is an easy sell. Exactly. But with you and I being moral and ethical and wanting to guide our investors long term, and we're building our own brand, you know, I mean, I know I am, and I'm licensed in California, by the way. So being licensed in California means that I have to cater to the National Association of Realtors guidelines. I am regulated by RERA in Dubai and in California, and I'm a certified international property specialist. So when I say something, I have to believe it. And there are just some projects that I'm not going to sell you. And I would say if someone's offering you two free tickets and three nights hotel room in one of the fastest moving markets in the world, just logically, why, exactly, they have a good reason. Yeah. So, okay. So thank you for that. So next topic, let's focus on scarcity and demand. Waterfront islands, plots, villas, prime branded residences have limited supply. They tend to weather downturns better. The UAE is expected to bring in 9,800 new millionaires in 2025. As we discussed, fueling demand at the top. Dubai has become a global wealth magnet. It's not just tourists anymore, but capital relocating. Demographically, the population keeps rising. The middle to upper classes are increasingly looking for lifestyle, security, residency, not just speculation. As Ahmed said, scarcity plus demographic shift equals durable demand. So, Ahmed, we already basically touched upon this, but I guess just to go in a little bit more, and we could do another segment. We talked about the type of buyer is different. We talk about the demographic. We talk about the type of areas that are scarce. Tell me again, what were you selling? What type of projects and units were you selling at that time in 2008? What was selling? What was selling the most? Well, obviously when I just started, Nakheel had just launched Palm Jumeirah. Okay. So when you talk about waterfront properties, there was nothing much more better and grander than owning a property in Palm Jumeirah, which was considered as one of the first eight wonders of the world. Okay, that was one. But then you always had this segment of first time comers. Yes. Who were still nervous and did not have a good budget to enter the market. So the best area at that time was right across from Dubai Marina, which was the JLT at that time, J Lake Towers. So yes, at that time you were able to purchase a one bedroom, for example, for roughly around $120,000. Oh my gosh. You're kidding me. Yes. So, so that's one of the reasons we saw a lot of first time comers who were just thinking about making that quick, because the entry point was so reasonable, including Palm Jumeirah as well. Palm Jumeirah was very, was extremely, was not compared to what you're paying per square foot today for a waterfront location. So, looking back at some of the data myself, I saw it was studios, it was one beds, it was just get into the market because they were investors. Yes. But now we see families moving here. And what do families need? Space. They need two, three bedrooms. They need villas. They need town houses. There's not enough. Correct. Right. So that's why we look into areas such as Polo Residences, we look at Dubai South, the entire Dubai South area. Right. Correct. And we are going to see a shift into different, let's say more into the suburbs for these areas. Correct. And then you have the high net worth individuals that work in DIFC, that are going to want to live in waterfront, that will come down to Maritime City. So I guess what I'm trying to say right now is that it's a different type of buyer. You have money coming here. You have families moving here. You have people that are staying here long term. So we're not talking about just getting into a studio as cheaply as possible, which there are plenty of. Yes. You need to remember one thing, that in 2008 the population was only 1.4 million at that time, compared to today we've already touched 4 million. Second thing, 2008 Dubai was a city for bachelors. Ooh, right. Not families. And that's why the whole concept of selling studios, building studios, was such a big thing, because the majority of the people who were moving to Dubai were strictly coming here to look for jobs, and they needed just a space to crash overnight, which is why studios were a big thing, compared to today. No smart investor will buy studios in, buy a studio right now. Exactly. So that's the difference. Yeah. So you're right. I mean the bachelors, like the people that just come here, make a bunch of money and then they leave. And I mean, you will see right now, it's Dubai just got ranked very high for digital nomad visa, etc. You still see a lot of single post college graduates that are coming here, but you are seeing a shift of people living here. And that's why, Ahmed, again, I know I have to air on the side of not predicting because we don't have a crystal ball, we can't guarantee anything, but you look at the traffic, you see the GDP numbers, you see the Sheikh's vision, you see largest airport in the world, largest exhibition center in the entire Middle East. You see Disney opening in Abu Dhabi. You see Wynn casino just bought their second land on Al Marjan Island and Ras Al Khaimah. Correct. There's constant, all the Fortune 500 companies that are setting up their headquarters, or their Amina headquarters anyways, in various regions in Dubai. We're getting calls daily. The Golden Visa in Dubai is probably one of the most Googled Golden Visa programs globally. So when someone says crash. I, how, it wouldn't make sense unless the whole world stops. Come, exactly. Right. Yes. Correct. Makes no sense. It doesn't make sense. That's why I don't like to hear people using the word crash or bubble. Right. Yes. Macro and policy anchors. It's not just market forces. Policy is pushing the backdrop. Dubai Economic Agenda D33 aims to significantly expand the economy, diversify into trade, tech, innovation, anchoring job and resident growth. Master Plan 2040 allocates large portions of land to green corridors, walks, transit, making regions more livable and desirable long term. DLD plays a critical role. They coordinate with developers to manage supply, enforce escrow, off-plan registration laws, and maintain market integrity. These checks and balances did not exist, or they were weak, in 2008. So bring us back to one of the major fundamental differences, Ahmed, in 2008 and today, is RERA. Indeed. So I had a client, personal story last week, secured him one of the most desirable units in Sobha. He's a UK, highly intelligent doctor. Wants to actually spend time here. So, he's buying a property, but he wants to do short term rentals when he's gone. And he was nervous about sending the money. Why? Cuz he heard about developers that would collect the money, get on their airplane, and leave when stuff went sour. There are those stories, but that can't exist anymore. Why? Well, yes, back in 2008, there were plenty of such stories. A handful of developers who had taken bank loans and were not able to pay back. And with the market crashing, they were not able to sell their projects. Their lands were on finance. So, yes, they packed up and left, because there was no one to chase them or hold them responsible, or back it up. They were able to even take people's money without it going through escrow, or without having to prove their financial, because all the funds, whenever someone would want to book a unit or purchase a unit, or even going as far as paying their monthly installments, was going directly into the developer's personal account. Who's the account holder? Where is the funds going? How are they being spent? There was no paper trail at all. And that's one of the reasons when 2008 took place and these developers fled the country, Dubai's government decided that's not how we will grow. If people will lose trust and faith into investing in a country called Dubai, we're done. We might as well stop whatever we have planned for the future. And that's why it was very important for Dubai government to take this initiative and create a Dubai Land Department where every single dime was controlled and monitored that enters the central bank. And what I also like, and I explain, is that even without the escrow accounts, for example, before a developer is allowed to promote their project, they have to go through an entire process with the DLD, where they prove how financially healthy they are, that they have the money to see that project through fruition, and get permission before they can even go out there and start telling us brokers, we have a project coming up. Correct? So what happened in 2008 cannot possibly happen today. Now, still doesn't mean that every development and every project is a smart investment, but no one's running away with your money. Correct. So that's a major differentiator. Of course. A developer running with your money is one of your, should be one of your least concerns today. What should be your concern is, is this developer capable of delivering what it's promising, rather than just selling flashy brochures. Because a lot of people are falling for the flashy brochure, not knowing what this developer is capable of, what they have done historically. Have they delivered anything, simply because a broker is coming and saying they will deliver one of the best qualities out there? Okay. Prove it. What have they, what have they exactly, what's their history? Show it to me. Show me the numbers. Unfortunately, this is what a lot of newcomers in the market are falling for, are the flashy brochures. So, finally, what's the risk? What's the thesis? Yes, potentially a 10 to 15% correction is plausible in weaker segments, but a full blown crash, 2008 style, requires leverage, illiquidity, and systemic failure. A combination we are not seeing, with stricter escrow rules, developer scrutiny, diversified buyer base, and policy anchors. This cycle is more resilient. Here's how you protect. Buy scarcity, underwrite conservatively, select projects with oversight, and always know your exit. Well, Ahmed, I think this was a good conversation. It's going to be continuous. If people have specific questions, of course, they can comment. If you are ready to start investing in Dubai's real estate market, please reach out to me on WhatsApp, and check out some of our other videos where we talk about the top areas to invest in and how to buy an off-plan project, the regulations in place with the DLD, how to finance globally, and how to do property management. And I thank you for coming on and always being an invaluable insight into Dubai real estate. Always a pleasure to be here, GG. Thank you, Ahmed. All right, so, until next time, please make sure to like, subscribe, follow, and stay tuned for the next Dubai Connect podcast episode.