Will Property Prices Fall in Dubai in 2024?

The question “Will property prices fall in Dubai in 2024?” is on the minds of many potential investors and current property owners in the region. To answer this, we need to examine the trends in property prices per square foot over the past few years, recent numbers, and projections for the future. While also understanding the principle of supply and demand and how it applies to the Dubai real estate market.

Property Prices Fall in Dubai
Property Prices Fall in Dubai | Photo-MEED

Historical Trends in Property Prices

In recent years, Dubai has experienced significant fluctuations in property prices. From 2018 to 2020, the market saw a decline due to various factors, including an oversupply of properties and global economic uncertainties. However, starting in late 2020, there was a noticeable recovery driven by several key developments:

  1. Economic Rebound Post-Pandemic: As Dubai emerged from the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a surge in economic activity. Which positively impacted the real estate market. The way the economy rebounded is one of dozens of reasons that Dubai continues to garner the trust of savvy global real estate investors.
  2. Government Initiatives: The introduction of long-term visas and other investor-friendly policies helped boost confidence in the market. Notably, the Golden Visa program, which grants long-term residency to property investors with a portfolio exceeding $544,500 USD (AED 2 million). It has been a significant driver of demand.
  3. Expo 2020: The global event, despite being postponed to 2021, played a role in revitalizing interest in Dubai’s property market. (Checkout my podcast with Expo City’s Sales Director to dive deeper into Expo City)

According to data from Knight Frank, the average price per square foot in prime residential areas increased by approximately 44% from the lows of 2020 to the end of 2022. This growth was propelled by high demand for luxury properties and limited new supply in key locations.

Recent Numbers and Projections for 2024

Entering 2023, the market maintained its upward trajectory. Recent figures indicate that the average price per square foot in Dubai. Dubai has continued to rise, albeit at a more moderate pace compared to the sharp rebound seen in the previous years. As of mid-2023, the price per square foot in prime areas like Downtown Dubai and Dubai Marina ranges between $408 USD to $680 USD (AED 1,500 to AED 2,500). While Palm Jumeirah, known for its exclusivity and high-end properties, commands higher prices, often exceeding $1,020 USD (AED 3,750).

The latest projections for 2024 suggest a steady, albeit slower, growth rate. Analysts forecast a 5-7% increase in average prices per square foot across the emirate. However, it is important to note that prime areas are expected to see a significantly higher price per square foot increase compared to other regions.

Variations by Project and Developer

Additionally, the price per square foot can vary significantly depending on the specific project and the quality of the developer. Not all developments are created equal; factors such as the developer’s reputation, the desirability of the brand. Its amenities and quality will impact the project’s resale value and can all impact the final price. Top-tier developers, known for their quality and reliability, often command higher prices and see better appreciation over time. Experts project a conservative estimate of 10% a year capital appreciation for off-plan projects. With some developers like EMAAR and SOBHA expecting much higher.

Principle of Supply and Demand

To further answer “Will property prices fall in Dubai in 2024?”. It’s crucial to understand the principle of supply and demand. In simple terms, property prices are influenced by the balance between how many properties are available (supply) and how many people want to buy them (demand).

  • Supply Side: In 2023, Dubai witnessed the delivery of 39,190 residential units. Yet this was insufficient to meet the demand created by the population growth of approximately 100,000 people in the same year. Even if all developers met their handover dates, they still wouldn’t be able to meet the burgeoning demand. The population is expected to double over the next 15 years, exacerbating this imbalance. According to CBRE’s UAE Real Estate Market Review Q1 2023,, this supply shortage is a significant factor in driving up property prices.
  • Demand Side: On the demand front, Dubai continues to be an attractive destination for expatriates, investors, and businesses. The introduction of initiatives like the Golden Visa, which grants long-term residency to property investors with a portfolio exceeding $544,500 USD (AED 2 million). It has further spurred demand. Additionally, mega projects such as the upcoming Ras Al Khaimah casino and the announcement of the Al Maktoum Airport expansion. Set to be the largest in the world, are expected to bring more tourists and businesses to Dubai, driving demand for rentals and commercial properties. Dubai has also been a top tourist destination for three consecutive years. According to TripAdvisor, further increasing the demand for rental properties.

Economic Growth and Job Market

Dubai’s economy is another critical factor influencing property prices. The emirate has seen robust economic growth, with significant job creation across various sectors, particularly in finance, technology, and artificial intelligence. The Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) continues to attract global financial institutions, boosting demand for both residential and commercial properties. The city’s investment in artificial intelligence and innovation has also attracted various industries, further driving economic growth and job creation.

Conclusion

Will property prices fall in Dubai in 2024? The answer, based on current trends and projections, is highly unlikely. UBS’s Bubble Index Report 2023 still finds Dubai as underpriced.
The real estate market in Dubai has shown resilience and adaptability, with prices per square foot continuing to rise steadily. The balance of supply and demand, along with economic stability and strategic government policies, suggests that property prices will remain strong. Making Dubai an appealing destination for real estate investment. Prime areas, in particular, are expected to see higher increases, and the variability in prices by project highlights the importance of choosing developments by reputable and desirable developers.

To stay updated on the key drivers for demand in Dubai, consider subscribing to “The Dubai Connect” podcast, where you can learn more about the latest trends and insights from industry experts.

Sources

According to the CBRE – UAE Real Estate Market Review Q1 2023 and Savills Dubai Property Market Report 2023, the market is experiencing significant growth with high demand and controlled supply. Further insights are provided by the Dubai Residential Real Estate Market Snapshot – June 2023 and Dubai Real Estate Market Hits Record Transactions in 2023.


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